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Chia, F C, Skitmore, M, Runeson, G and Bridge, A (2012) An analysis of construction productivity in Malaysia. Construction Management and Economics, 30(12), 1055-69.

Kassem, M, Dawood, N and Mitchell, D (2012) A decision support system for the selection of curtain wall systems at the design development stage. Construction Management and Economics, 30(12), 1039-53.

Ling, F Y Y and Tran, P Q (2012) Effects of interpersonal relations on public sector construction contracts in Vietnam. Construction Management and Economics, 30(12), 1087-101.

Loosemore, M, Chow, V W and McGeorge, D (2012) Modelling the risks of extreme weather events for Australasian hospital infrastructure using rich picture diagrams. Construction Management and Economics, 30(12), 1071-86.

Zheng, X, Chau, K W and Hui, E C-M (2012) The impact of property price on construction output. Construction Management and Economics, 30(12), 1025-37.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: autoregressive distributed lag model; cointegration; construction output; forecast; property price
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446193.2012.714872
  • Abstract:
    The interaction between the construction market and the overall economy has attracted much attention, but few studies have investigated the influence of the property market on the construction market in terms of property price. The disaggregated data of Hong Kong's housing and retail construction sectors are collected to investigate the impact of property price on construction output. The newly developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and the error correction (EC)-based Granger causality test are employed. The bounds testing results suggest that there exist stable long-run relationships between construction output and property price for both housing and retail construction sectors. Specifically, a 1% increase in the housing price and retail price lead to a 0.55% and 0.42% increase in construction outputs for the two sectors respectively. In addition, the Granger causality tests confirm a distinct long-run causal flow from property price to construction output. Furthermore, the proposed ARDL approach provides an effective method for forecasting construction output.